Channel Islands Beach, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

028
FXUS66 KLOX 290041
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
541 PM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.SYNOPSIS...28/128 PM.

Night through morning low clouds will prevail through most of
this week, with temperatures well below normal through at least
Thursday. Modest warming likely to follow. Drizzle is possible
especially near the foothills. Gusty winds will continue over
the interior mountains and deserts, as well as southwest Santa
Barbara County through at least early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...28/209 PM.

The upper trough situated over the Great Basin is expected to lift
northeast into Monday. In tandem, a shortwave trough will dive due
south along the British Columbia coast deepening some into Socal.
The upper pattern will slow down with weak troughing continuing
across the west into Thursday.

Moderate to strong onshore flow is expected to persist to the east
through Thursday. Expected to weaken somewhat thereafter but likely
to remain moderately onshore. Onshore flow to the north (LAX-BFL)
is expected to increase some through Wednesday (peaking near 6mb).
500 mb heights are expected to decrease to near 577 dm Monday
night. Then, will gradually rise through the remainder of the
short-term (but remaining below average).

This will result in below average temperatures continuing through
the period, coolest across the interior (8 to 15 F below normal).
Night through morning low clouds will prevail through the week
reaching into the interior valleys (Santa Clarita), and even in
areas that usually do not see low clouds. Drizzle will be possible
especially across the foothills due to the enhancement of
orographic lifting. PWATs will be the highest across the LA Basin
on Tuesday given the aforementioned synoptic setup. Would not be
surprised to see even a few light showers across the foothills of
San Gabriel Mountains.

Sundowners are expected again tonight. However, SBA-SMX gradient
according to the ECWMF projections will likely fall into the
negative 2 to 3 mb range. Likely to be insufficient for an wind
advisory (30% chc) but localized wind gusts to 45 mph such as
at Refugio is possible. Expecting the gustier winds to have a
shorter duration. Evening NW winds across SW SB county will
continue Monday into Tuesday (Sub-advisory). Better chance
for advisory Wed & Thurs, but marginal if it materializes.
Gusty winds will continue across the far interior thru the period.
Any advisory level winds that develop will likely remain localized
through Tuesday.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...28/209 PM.

Good consensus among ensemble and deterministic guidance of high
pressure building over the region Friday and Saturday. This will
result in a warming trend into July 4th weekend as 500mb heights
continue to rise and gradients trend offshore. Temperatures will
likely warm even more into next week - however, there is quite
the range in solutions. Stay tuned for updates.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0040Z.

At 0002Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3800 ft deep. The top of
the weak inversion was 5900 ft with a temperature of 14 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD KWJF, with abnormally strong
onshore winds. There is a 20% chance of clouds tonight at KPRB.

Moderate confidence for all other sites. Ceiling are expected
to develop tonight, but timing be be off by +/- 3 hours and
flight categories off by 1 category. The weak inversion
contributes to the uncertainty. 20% at each site to drop down to
IFR.

KLAX...Ceiling are expected to develop tonight, with moderate
confidence in timing (+/- 3 hours). OVC015-025 cig hieghts are
most likely. There is a 50% chance of SE winds 8-10 knots 13-17Z
Mon.

KBUR...Ceiling are expected to develop tonight, with moderate
confidence in timing (+/- 3 hours). OVC010-025 cig hieghts are
most likely.

&&

.MARINE...28/136 PM.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds
continuing for the outer waters from the Central Coast through
San Nicolas Island through Monday morning, with some improvement
still expected after. The nearshore Central Coast waters should
continue to see SCA winds today focused this afternoon and
evening, with chances decreasing Monday and Tuesday.

Moderate confidence in SCA winds over the western Santa Barbara
Channel late this afternoon and evening once again, with lowering
chances to follow. The rest of the waters will likely stay under
SCA.

All waters will see short-period choppy seas into early next week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Black
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...SF
SYNOPSIS...DB/RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox